FPL Is Back!!!

*How I feel when the new season is upon us*

Hope is an intoxicating feeling.

As the start of a new Premier League season rapidly approaches, I join the collective mass of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) maniacs who fervently hope that our team is destined for greatness. The delusion runs so deep that to call it hope is almost misleading; we believe beyond reason that our choices are better than the rest, built on better data, better instincts, and a touch of genius. All the while, lingering below the confident surface, we mentally prepare for the humbling the season will bring.

If that wasn't a convincing enough advertisement for FPL, let me say that I am just as surprised to be nursing this addiction. When I started paying attention to FPL during the pandemic, I thought it was a fun way to learn more about the English Premier League (EPL) that I'd been watching since I was a kid. Judging by the number of football tactics books that now sit on my shelf, it was! But little did I know I would spiral into the depths of FPL obsession, spending my weeks obsessing over differentials, transfers, and chips....

Apologies if you have no idea what I am talking about. I’m not going to spend any time in this post explaining the sensation that is FPL, but I will add a few links should you be so intrigued.

And so here we are. T minus 24 hours until the first kick-off! Commence the second guessing, the endless stream of podcasts, articles, and Reddit posts. Here. We. Go.

In the spirit of incremental improvement - that is after all, what FPL is all about - I wanted to do a write-up of my Week 1 team. How did I decide on these players? What was my strategy? What are my biggest fears?

This post is inherently self-indulgent, but I do hope that even those that don't follow FPL find something interesting to take away. Just please don't blame me next year when you find yourself at the edge of sanity, frantically experimenting with the same three transfers, trying to perfect the imperfectible...

The Commandments

Advice abounds in the FPL community. Every manager has a philosophy, a series of rules they refuse to break, and many are inclined to tell you just how foolish your strategy is because it violates their sacred beliefs. As you're about to see, there are really no unbreakable rules in FPL, at least not for me. But I do think it is valuable to consider various principles for success. So here are the ones I decided upon for this season, inspired by my own experience and the wisdom of other FPL managers:

1. The Commandments Are More Like... Guidelines

What are rules for, if not for breaking? I so badly wanted to go into this season with a clear set of unbreakable rules that would help keep me more disciplined as I put my team together. And unsurprisingly, I almost immediately found reasons to break them. That isn't to say that rules aren't helpful. They force me to put extra weight on instances where I am tempted to violate them, to develop extensive and well-reasoned justifications (or so I tell myself). Still, I'll do my best to stick to the commandments, until I won't :D

2. Start Premium, Downgrade Later

This is an easy one, and not too controversial. Certain players in FPL are expensive, meaning it's hard to get them into your team later if you don't have an equivalent player or extra budget to be able to afford them. It is far easier to start with an expensive elite player, and then if they aren't performing, you can always swap them out later. It is also likely the case that these players are "template", meaning that the majority of other managers also have them, helping you stay stable in the rankings.

Still, I've already partly violated this rule, by moving away from Trent Alexander-Arnold in defense. I already have two other premiums, and the combined cost is so expensive that I couldn't justify a third. Compromises are part of the game.

3. Leave Some Money in the Bank

Leaving some of your budget in the bank, even as little as £0.5m, can really help alleviate stress later on when you need to make an emergency transfer but lack the adequate funds. I haven't done this in past years, looking to maximize my team, but I want to try it this year. That being said, though £0.5m might seem like such a small amount in the grand scheme of £100m, the process of finding those savings is actually quite painful.

4. Patience Is Vital

Last season I was incredibly guilty of panicking. A promising asset didn't return when it seemed like they had the perfect opportunity to do so? Well they surely can't be trusted against stiffer competition, time to remove them from my team. To be fair, I am far from alone, and this problem plagues millions of FPL managers, especially the inexperienced like myself. This year, I want to be better about trusting my picks for a set of fixtures, probably around 4 to 6, and letting those play out how they will without interference on my part. Players get hot and cold, streaks and droughts happen. But FPL is a game of averages and you won't benefit from that if you get jumpy at the first sign of doubt.

5. Template is Template for a Reason

I already talked about the idea of a template players, but this commandment emphasizes the caution one should show around differentials, or players that differ from who the majority of managers are picking. Differentials are a double-edged sword. They are the only way you will be able to separate your team from the pack, and achieve the glorious victory you've been dreaming of. But they are also the easiest way to plummet down the rankings into humiliation. The reality is that you will hear many managers say that being "boring" in FPL pays off. Sticking close to the template can ensure a great season, and it will be up to you to find the selective moments where you abandon the template to take a risk.

6. HAVE FUN!

It's far too easy to get lost in the endless tangle of rules, pressure, data, and research before you remember - WAIT! - isn't this supposed to be fun?? No doubt for many of us obsessed those parts of the process are still enjoyable, but the point is not to get too lost in the process and negative when things don't go your way. Things are guaranteed to not go your way, at least at points. Life is too short to let minor struggles bring you down. Celebrate the victories, even the small ones, and enjoy the entertainment that the EPL provides in its own right.

I'll leave it here for now. No doubt I could have gone deeper, but I'll save a few more for next year. After all, it will just be more rules for me to break.

MY TEAM

I almost want to caveat that I cannot promise that I will not tweak this team one more time before tomorrow's kick-off, but after hours of research and numerous mocks, I think I'm finally ready to reveal what I hope to be my starting 15:

There are a few ways to break this down, including position by position, but I think I'd rather simply walk you through my process:

The Premiums

As I stated earlier, like most managers, I started with who I considered to be the premium players that I would be jealous to not have in my squad. This is generally correlated to price, which narrows the field to:

Erling Haaland - £14.0m
Harry Kane - £12.5m
Mohamed Salah - £12.5m
Trent Alexander-Arnold - £8.0m

Haaland is owned by 86%+ of all managers, the definition of template, so he was an easy in. Kane is now a non-factor, expected to leave the EPL entirely to go play for Bayern Munich in Germany. So that left Salah and TAA, who I initially tried to keep in my team. The reality of three premiums, however, is that you don't leave yourself much budget for other positions. TAA was the obvious candidate to cut, given the uncertainty surrounding exactly what his role will be in Liverpool’s attack. Liverpool is also filled with attacking threats, and are experimenting with a new system, making him a more risky choice than in years past.

Is Salah worth it? History would say yes, but that is little guarantee for the future. In this case I believe he is still on another tier of quality in an exciting offense; but if I'm wrong, I'm following my premium commandment, allowing me to transfer him out of my team with a comfortable amount of budget to sub in anyone else I might want.

Strengthening the Midfield

With the two premiums in, the challenge now became about where to add value. The midfield is largely considered to be the most important position in FPL, given the extra points allocated for clean sheets and goals, so it is important to build a robust squad here. Moreover, the price of good midfielders is simply higher than other positions, making it far harder to skimp here. (And believe me I tried)

There's quite a bit of template going on here. In my original mock, I desperately wanted to go with Solly March as a differential, but the reality is that Mitoma is just owned by too many players. I'm not taking those sort of risks this season, at least not this early. Mitoma is also only £6.5m with a brilliant set of fixtures to start the season, so again, an easy in.

Saka was also a bit of a no-brainer - template and one of the key attackers at Arsenal who I am confident will have another excellent season. I briefly mocked a squad without him, and I knew his absence would haunt me. One of my beliefs, which I abandoned last year to my own demise, is that you must trust your gut on players or teams you feel will perform well. Last year I knew Haaland would have a successful season, but I kept him out of my initial squads because I didn't like the early fixtures and I thought there would be some growing pains. Huge mistake.

At this point, the attention naturally turns to Manchester United. Marcus Rashford and Bruno Fernandes are the two to have, if you can afford them. In my case, I knew I would only be able to have one given the initial outlay on Salah. Rashford is £0.5m more expensive, but you have to say that the attacking potential justifies that price. Bruno, however, is one of those players I just have a spidey sense for. It's ironic because I detest his ego, and am certainly not a fan of his team, but I have to admit that he delivers in crucial moments and brings something special to his position. Moreover, this is partly a data pick. He regressed against the stats last season, and is well positioned to return to form in a better Man Utd attack this year.

Defending my Defense

There was one spot left in my midfield, but it didn't make sense to worry about it until I had a better sense of my budget spend elsewhere.

I love defenders. When you get a 16-point haul from your 4.5m defender from a goal and a clean sheet it feels like a robbery. And there are so many options! Takes a little pressure of transfers to be sure, but makes the differential possibilities tantalizing.

That being said, template is the way to go at the start. Estupiñan, Gabriel, and Chilwell all fit into that category. I am still feeling a bit of a struggle in choosing between Luke Shaw at Man Utd and Ben Chilwell, but I did say FPL is all about fun and my team's name is LITERALLY Netflix & Chilwell (I see you rolling your eyes at me). Besides, it's fun to have a Chelsea player on my squad, and it will feel all the sweeter if that defense actually performs well.

Template they may be, but they are all priced at 5.0m or above. My last two defenders need to be cheaper. Again, I'm not too worried about "missing" on these picks. I will have the ability to transfer them out pretty easily later on, and it's not guaranteed that they will start every week given my desire to play a 3-5-2.

There's an enormous degree of uncertainty here, mostly because these are players I don't know as well, on teams whose systems I don't fully understand. So I was very reliant on podcasts, articles, and forums that discussed these players. I experimented with the likes of Sven Botman on Newcastle, who served me well last season, but I really don't like his early fixtures. Instead I went with Ethan Pinnock, who I also had at points last season, and has great early fixtures.

Lastly, my £4.5m restriction led me to further explore Aston Villa, a team that had a surprising rise to success last year, and who many expect to do well this year. But who? Matty Cash and Tyrone Mings seemed popular, but online chatter suggested that new arrival Pau Torres was the man to go with. Putting my faith in the internet peanut gallery, that has always gone well....

Filling in the Rest

At this point there are 5 spots left and only £25.5m budget. By no means impossible, but a light sweat begins to break out.

If this is truly my squad, one thing is certain, I will have to get cheap at goalkeeper. In past seasons, it has seemed obvious to go for a "premium" asset at GK like Ederson at Manchester City, but this has rarely paid off in my experience. Partly because these players don't perform as consistently as you'd expect, but also because the budget you save from a cheaper GK can be more effectively spent elsewhere. And besides, keepers get points for saves! So who wants a GK that barely faces a shot? Well some managers surely do...

Jordan Pickford seemed like a popular option with a hopefully improved Everton defense, though I did explore other options like Flekken at Brentford and Leno at Fulham. Ultimately, trust the template. The real question became whether I could go with anyone at the £4.0m price point and feel good about it. Some, including last year's FPL champion, were content to go with Pickford's backup Virginia should anything happen to him. This seams like a smart move, but I can't help but feeling like I want another starter in goal. Fortunately for me and many managers in a similar spot, Arsenal turned around and sold their backup keeper, American Matt Turner, to Nottingham Forest, who was priced as a backup in FPL! There is no guarantee he keeps the starting role later in the season (Dean Henderson is rumored), but it offered another option. Congrats Turner, welcome to the team.

£17.0m in the bank and 3 spots left, including a midfielder. Could I really get away with less than 6.5m on a midfielder? Fear not, once again the template to the rescue.

I've abdicated the striker conversation until now, but I promise you I was taking a look. The problem, as ever, is price. Haaland is so dang expensive that going with another solid option runs at least £7.0m if not £8.0m in price. £8.0m for Ollie Watkins just did not seem viable, though I did look closely at another Chelsea hopeful Nicolas Jackson. I so badly want him in my team! I have loved his preseason form and Chelsea's manager Mauricio Pochettino will surely want to press the attack. But sadly still too expensive. And he would be a differential, which would be risky.

Template managers were instead saving money just like I was trying to, and going for João Pedro and Divin Mubama. Both are newer arrivals at their respective teams, Brighton and West Ham, so expectations are naturally uncertain. Mubama has generated excitement but is only 18, so playing time is likely to be limited. Still, if I'm really not likely to play a third forward regularly, than it is ok to take a hit here. João Pedro, on the other hand, is generating a lot of excitement at Brighton and is expected to be on penalty duties, which makes me feel much better about this pick. There is some competition in the role, but he was brought into the team for an expensive transfer, so one would hope that he would compete intensely and be favored to start often.

£6.5m in the bank and one midfield spot to shore up. Which brings us to Eze. Funny enough, Eze started in my original mock, only to exit in the next two, and has now found his way back in. Eze is inevitable? I certainly hope so. This is a pick with low expectations given the sacrifice on price, but there is admittedly a lot of upside. He is a gifted player no doubt, who is now on penalty duties, and will have more of a starring role in Crystal Palace's attack with Wilfried Zaha gone. Fingers crossed.

*So much hope for this young talent, just like me!*

The Debrief

Surely there can't be more? I've chosen my team, what else is there to say?! Well clearly you haven't met me before... I want to end on a few comments about my team, what I'm watching out for, and what I'm playing for.

Starting in reverse order, I'm excited this year to be part of the inaugural Reddit Series League. FPL is simply more fun when you are part of a community. Not to say there isn't value to playing alone, but I started playing through a work league, and it was great fun to jostle for position with others at my company. Having left that job, the Reddit league is exactly the type of engagement I was looking for. It is a multi-league structure with promotion and relegation in a similar manner to the real life English football system. I love the idea of competing to get into higher tiers of competition, winning promotion, and playing with the same group of people season after season. I’m in League 5, so the only way is up. Hopes are high!

I'll surely write a separate post on my expectations for the upcoming season, though perhaps not in time for Week 1. I do enjoy how the FPL process gets me even more excited for the season to start, just as I intended. I'm very excited to wake up early, make biscuits, and sit in front my tv shouting at Salah to score one goal and for Chilwell to score two :D

Here, then, are my final reflections:

Who I'm Glad I Have

The obvious answer is Salah, though it is notable to emphasize this one given that he currently is fielded by less than 30% of FPL managers! I certainly don't intend him as a differential, but here we are...

The other player that comes to mind is Bruno Fernandes. FPL is a crazy parallel universe where I have suddenly become emotionally invested in a rival's performance. Though plenty of managers own him, I can't help but feel that Rashford will be the more popular option. Could Bruno be the hero my team needs??

Who I Wish I Had

I already covered Nicolas Jackson. I am going to feel bittersweet if he takes the early gameweeks by storm. Will I desperately try to find a way to get him into my squad? I already need to talk myself down and the season hasn't even started haha!

On the subject of strikers, Ollie Watkins is another that I am sure will have a great season. The hardest part about FPL is passing on players who you know will do well because you simply cannot afford them. Ollie and Villa should have a fantastic season, maybe later down the road I can find a way to be a part of it.

Martin Ødegaard is also a player that really stands out. Though some managers are going for a double Arsenal attack, I can't justify losing out on Bruno. But I love how creatively Odegaard plays, and he will surely be brilliant at many points throughout the season. At the same time, I remember the stress of last season, trying to predict who would get the most points between him, Saka, Martinelli, Jesus, etc. Glad to avoid that for now.

And if only I could have Luke Shaw and Ben Chilwell both! I definitely feel that I can justify the inclusion of Chilwell, not just for the fun factor, but for the fixtures. Still, I'll be closely monitoring Shaw and wincing just a bit every time he performs as well or better than Chilly.

What I'm Preparing For

I have had terrible luck, and general inexperience, at using my chips the past two years. I've done alright by Bench Boost, getting 20+ points in both years. Triple Captain has been an absolute embarrassment, amounting to only a handful of points across both years combined! And Wildcards and Free Hits have been very hit and miss. I'm hoping to look more closely into the wisdom of other FPL managers, and be better about timing these chips.

Will this be the year I learn patience? It’s a commandment after all. The earlier Jackson commentary casts doubts. I really want to be less reactive this year, and trust my instincts more. I'm hoping that part of that process can be improved by posts like these, recording my reasoning, and staying strong to a thesis. The challenge will be in finding how long to wait, and practicing the discipline that being a great FPL manager requires.

I've already rambled for far too long, and I think my girlfriend is starting to worry about much time I'm spending on this... For the moment, I will feel content about my team, and hopeful upon entering a new season! I’ll leave you with a look at my likely Starting XI for Week 1. It's all in front of me, this is the year!

TABLE OF CONTENTS

The Commandments

My Team

The Debrief