Sunday, September 25, 2023
Chelsea 0 - Aston Villa 1
Looking Ahead
When I last wrote in this column, I spoke extensively about the patience we Chelsea fans needed to exhibit during this difficult period. I was pleased to see Michael Cox, whose book The Mixer I highly recommend, comment on The Athletic with much the same sentiment.
So Sunday’s performance, and result, were of little surprise. Of course you go in with a glint of hopefulness (less and less these days), but I felt quite grounded in the reality that this Chelsea team was not quite ready to beat the caliber of Villa. Unai Emery’s project has been fantastically successful, with only Arsenal and Manchester City claiming more points in the table than Aston Villa over the course of 2023.
Still, it must be said that Chelsea’s performance, though frustrating for its lack of goal-scoring product, was quite promising in chances created. Given the inexperience and incompetence that has been a central theme of the team over the past year, it was actually quite stunning that Villa did not really control the game at all, and only managed to score a single goal against the run of play. With 10 men, Chelsea still created chances and looked threatening, which is frankly embarrassing for Villa.
My point is that this commentary, as with Chelsea’s play, risks being very samey. The work in progress remains a work in progress. Little has changed with my overall feeling about the direction of the team, but as these types of performances add up - 5 points in 6 league matches - it is worth looking ahead to the schedule for the rest of the year. I am not panicking quite yet, but when should I start? Here are Chelsea’s upcoming EPL fixtures for the rest of the year:
Perhaps it’s somewhat arbitrary, but I am inclined to assess this upcoming run of fixtures by the month, and in so doing, three words come to mind - patience, pain, and promise.
October - Patience
At the risk of beating a dead horse, patience continues to be the watchword for the next month. To put a different spin on it, I would actually advocate for using the word “development”, as that is more true of what is happening with the Chelsea squad at the moment. Players need more time to gel together, to understand each other’s tendencies, and to build confidence in their abilities. Out of a possible 12 points in October, Chelsea would be quite fortunate to get 6, but I think 4 is a realistic expectation.
The upcoming fixtures are promising on paper, but we all know how the reality of Chelsea’s performances tends to make fools of the betting odds. Fulham beat Chelsea twice last season, and despite their abysmal underlying statistics, they are a team that seem to bring their opposition to their level, an impressive quality in the EPL. Chelsea are also extremely guilty of playing down to their opponent. In all honesty, a draw would be a shock, Fulham should secure 3 points.
By contrast, Burnley is a very winnable match. I don’t want to get my hopes too far up, but Burnley’s defensive set-up is weak, and leaves lots of room for the midfield to penetrate behind their lines. I think Chelsea will find opportunities similarly to how they did against Luton Town. Moreover, the defensive line has been solid for Chelsea, and Burnley’s inept attack would be lucky to get through. A draw would signal Chelsea’s continued scoring ineptitude, but this is a winnable game.
Arsenal and Brentford, by contrast, will be losses. Arsenal is simply a far far superior team in talent and structure, whereas Brentford’s superiority is mostly in structure. In both cases, Chelsea players will struggle to break down opposing defenses. The players are not at the level of talent nor cohesiveness to compete with these teams.
November - Pain
The quality of Chelsea’s November opponents - Tottenham, Manchester City, and Newcastle - are all well above Chelsea’s current ability. Extending from the end of October, these will not only be losses, but will be painful losses. I expect a total goal differential easily of -10. There is still much room for growth during this period, however, losses aside. Early goals and dominant attacks from the opposition should leave some opportunities for late “garbage time” goals from Chelsea’s attack. These goals, meaningless in the overall score line, should be great opportunities to re-instill some confidence in the attacking unit in preparation for easier fixtures in December. Scoring is scoring, and even against second teamers in a blowout, these goals can help establish a semblance of a rhythm.
December - Promise
Ok, here is where I actually get hopeful, speculative, and perhaps delusional once again. Out of a possible 21 points, Chelsea need to claim at least 14 to feel confident going into the second half of the campaign. While the early fixtures start Challenging, there is the chance that both Brighton and Manchester United are a little worn down by European football, and Chelsea could represent a trap game. I’m not expecting that, I have these down as two losses, but there is a window to be sure.
The next five are all very winnable games. Moreover, Chelsea is in HUGE trouble if they can’t consistently score against this level of opponent. I expect they will be able to convert more of their expected goals (xG) into actual goals by this point in the season, especially taking into account the return of injured players like Reece James and Carney Chukwuemeka.
Anything less than 14 points, and Chelsea is firmly in a relegation battle. Hell even 14 points from December does not put Chelsea in a very comfortable position. If you would have offered a bookie $1 only two years ago that Chelsea would be relegated within two seasons, they would have likely paid out $10,000 for such an improbable outcome. And yet here we are. For myself, I am far from worrying yet about a relegation battle. There is progress in every dimension except the attack, admittedly the most important area. If the scoring efficacy can truly not be improved, than the question for 2024 will be how to keep Chelsea above 18th place, rather than making it into the top 10. I’d rather not consider that potential just yet.
And now a few more thoughts about the Aston Villa match…
Moment of the Match
Malo Gusto’s Red Card
My view of a Red Card offense is simply different than the consensus view. Gusto’s challenge, which was instinctual and played the ball, was sloppy and reckless, but not worthy of a straight Red Card. Red Cards need to be reserved for truly malicious or nonsensical challenges that genuinely endanger players. Gusto’s challenge was ill-advised, but did not rise to the level of intentionally dangerous. It disappoints me that officials cannot parse the nature of split-second decisions that players make, and assume the worst. I see the same phenomenon play out in college football with targeting. The reality is that players often have to make tough and physical plays in a fraction of a second, and mistakes happen. Sending a player off for a Red Card, which entirely changes the tenor of a match, should be reserved for very severe offenses. Gusto’s was not that.
Quick Takes
The Positives
Early Game Energy. It is refreshing and exciting to see Chelsea come out and start games with a hunger to create chances. We know about the scoring challenges, but there is no doubt that Chelsea wants to score. I was surprised that Chelsea was able to control more of the possession. Villa is a stronger team across many dimensions, but their inability to control the passing and midfield speaks to Chelsea’s continued development.
Mudryk Has His Moments. Mykhailo Mudryk’s tenure at Chelsea has been a struggle. The combination of poor coaching, the burden of expectations, and the immense pain of the Russia Ukraine conflict are too much for any one person to bear. So I take even small signs of Mudryk’s progress as a good sign. He still clearly has much work to do, and loses the ball too frequently, but he made a number of very incisive passes against Villa that I thought were wonderful. And he is another player who enjoys a good take-on and understands that his pace is a potent weapon. There is much polishing to do, but I don’t want to repeat the same mistakes we made with Timo Werner. I’m one of the few that believes that Mudryk can legitimately be a big threat in the EPL, and I want to see him reach that potential.
The Negatives
A Sterling Trap? Perhaps I am very guilty of overthinking, but I’ve been worried about Sterling for a while. He is consistently lauded this season as Chelsea’s stand out player, dribbling into dangerous positions and scoring twice against Luton Town. Despite these promising developments, I can’t help but feel that Sterling may be undermining Chelsea’s potential. How so?
My biggest plaudit for Sterling is that he does get into dangerous positions, especially via take-ons, which I love. I am often critical that Chelsea players have no desire to out dribble their opponents, believing they can out-pass the opposition which they clearly never can.
That being said, what does Sterling do when he gets into these positions? Fuck all. The amount of times Sterling has been in an exciting position with a clear pass needing to be made, and he simply doesn’t have the wherewithal to find it, is maddening. Even worse, his shooting skills are highly questionable. He more often loses the ball than gets a shot off. And his two goals this season are against an awful Luton Town team, nothing to celebrate. We need players who can not only get into dangerous positions, but who can then convert from those chances. Sterling can’t.
So either one of two things happens - Sterling improves his final third distribution and finishing, which we have little evidence for, or a different player like Cole Palmer or Madueke comes in and takes a different approach. I’m at the point where I’d rather see youth take over.